Which method is commonly used to forecast a company's basic share count?

The method of using announced future share issuance or buyback plans is particularly reliable for forecasting a company's basic share count because it incorporates concrete decisions made by the company's management regarding its equity structure. When a company announces a plan to issue new shares, such as through stock options or an equity offering, or initiates a buyback program to reduce the number of shares outstanding, it provides clear guidance on expected changes in share count. This forthcoming information enables analysts and investors to predict the future number of shares with a greater degree of accuracy, reflecting the company's strategic intentions.

In contrast, comparing with industry averages may not account for the specific circumstances of the individual company or its strategic decisions. Calculating based on market cap could provide a rough estimate, but it does not directly relate to share count without also knowing the share price. Estimating from historical performance might provide some context, but it lacks the immediacy and relevance of official announcements, which directly dictate future share counts.